Electrify Kelowna - An Analysis of Gas to Electric Load Shifting

Presenter:  David Bailey - FortisBC

David is a professional engineer (Civil) and manages the energy forecasting for both the Fortis gas and electric utilities in British Columbia. After starting his career in municipal engineering David spent the next 15 years as a software developer and IT consultant. David took on the Forecast Manager role at Fortis in 2010.  Throughout his career he has developed and operated computer forecast models for everything from municipal infrastructure to the cell phone industry. His first project at Surrey (as a summer student) was to replace the buggy and unreliable traffic count software developed by a consultant from Seattle by the name of Bill Gates.

Topic: Electrify Kelowna - An Analysis of Gas to Electric Load Shifting

Decarbonizing our energy systems will require transforming these systems. Some measures, such as increasing the use of electricity for cars and heating systems, will put pressure on our electricity grid to keep up.

To better understand, prepare for and moderate the impacts of increased electrification and increasing demand on its electricity system, FortisBC’s resource planning and forecasting teams conducted a preliminary case study using software modelling on three years of electricity and gas use together with climate data within the city of Kelowna.

The analysis showed that in scenarios with high levels of electrification, it would be challenging to meet peak demand (the highest amount of energy people need at a certain time) in winter even with the widespread adoption of high-efficiency electric heat pumps and shifting EV charging into overnight periods.

The case study highlights that the existing gas system is critical for energy security, supply and affordability. The study concluded that a deep electrification pathway would require significant capital investments and present challenges related to affordability and resiliency for customers. It also found that using the existing and planned investment in gas infrastructure is vital to overcoming these challenges and provides a higher likelihood of reaching the Government of B.C.’s carbon reduction goals.